Thursday, March 31, 2011

Headlinin’: BCS lightens up a bit on its Fiesta Bowl friends

Making the morning rounds, which are absolutely filthy.

? All the dirt that's fit to print, part one. The fallout from Tuesday's report on widespread corruption in the Fiesta Bowl continues unabated —�already, the Arizona Republic has documented:

? Possible felonies committed by bowl officials,
? Unethical behavior by politicians who accepted the bowl's lavish overtures,
? An inquiry into "a secret contract" between the bowl and a local Indian tribe,
?�An internal inquiry by the Maricopa County Sheriff's Office into the deputy who received bowl funds to start a security company that seemed to exist for the Fiesta Bowl,
?�Wavering corporate sponsors, including the omnipresent title sponsor, Tostitos.

And so on. While everyone else is ramping up, though, BCS executive director Bill Hancock is slamming the brakes on his initially threatening response earlier this week, telling the Republic that speculation over the Fiesta Bowl losing its privileged BCS status is "way premature." Surely the sudden retreat has nothing to do with the fact that Hancock and one of the members of the "task force" assembled to review the Fiesta's credentials, Sun Belt commissioner Wright Waters, has accepted free gifts and golf from the bowl at its annual "Fiesta Frolic"? No, it couldn't be. [Arizona Republic]

? All the dirt that's fit to print, part two. Van Malone, a former cornerbacks coach at Texas A&M, told ESPN on camera that Willie Lyles —�the Texas-based "trainer" and scout in the spotlight earlier this month for his relationship with Oregon and several Duck players —�once shopped hyped recruit Patrick Peterson to A&M for $80,000 in 2007. "A few days after the kid's visit, Will calls and says, 'If you want this kid, there are other schools that want this kid as well. They're willing to pay a certain amount of money, around the $80,000 mark,'" said Malone, now an assistant at Tulsa. "He said that was something we were going to have to beat as a university to be able to obtain the services of this kid." Per Malone, he rejected the offer on the spot but never relayed it to then-head coach Dennis Franchione. Patrick Peterson Sr. (the only other relevant party who spoke to ESPN) admitted he'd met Lyles at various camps but called the allegation "a shocker."

Peterson initially committed to Miami, later signed with LSU, was awarded as the both the best defensive back and best overall defensive player in the nation last year as a junior and is generally considered one of the top two or three prospects in the upcoming NFL Draft. Lyles has been fingered as a "powerful" street agent before, and is already at the center of an NCAA inquiry at Oregon. He's also been paid thousands by LSU, among other schools, for (ostensibly legal) "scouting services," though the ESPN piece doesn't specifically implicate LSU in its recruitment of Peterson. [ESPN]

? All the dirt that's fit to print, part three. Auburn coach Gene Chizik livened up the script a bit, but predictably dismissed pay-for-play allegations by four former Tiger players Wednesday night on HBO's Real Sports with Bryant Gumbel. "I think it is pathetic and pure garbage," Chizik said. "I have other former players calling me, who are still playing, that had no knowledge of any of that stuff." Ex-Auburn players sounded a similarly skeptical note, but both the university and SEC duly pledged to look into it before declaring "nothing to see here." [al.com]

? And now for the least disorderly item of the day. Two Penn State players, Curtis Drake and Derrick Thomas, have been charged with disorderly conduct for their role in a fight in an off-campus apartment building on Feb. 26 — or, as it was known in State College, "State Patty's Day," an unofficial student holiday criticized as "an excuse for excessive drinking and destructive behavior." (As if college kids need an excuse.) Drake and Thomas were charged along with two Nittany Lion basketball players, one other Penn State student and two non-students; one person reported "minor injuries" in the scuffle but did not require treatment. No team-related discipline has been announced for either player. [Associated Press]

Quickly… Notre Dame will host USC in a primetime game on Oct. 22, the first nighttime kickoff in Notre Dame Stadium in 21 years. … Mitch Mustain tries to rehabilitate his image at USC's pro day. … Jake Locker was happy with his performance for the scouts. … Tim Tebow's first Jockey commercial is ready to inspire lust across America. … And to the victor go the beers.

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Matt Hinton is on Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.

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Video: Harrellson sends message by pegging ball at Sullinger

You could pick any number of single plays that best defined Kentucky's stunning upset of top-seeded Ohio State. Perhaps it'd be Brandon Knight's go-ahead jump shot or maybe one of the Wildcats' 11 blocks or perhaps the team's brilliant defensive stand when the Buckeyes had a chance to take the lead with 65 seconds remaining.

But if you want to get down to it, the game was summed up by a moment that won't even show up in the official play-by-play sheet. It happened when Kentucky's Josh Harrellson pegged the ball directly at Ohio State's star freshman Jared Sullinger:

He didn't have to throw it that hard but he did it for a reason. I can't get in his head, but I imagine it was something like, "watch out Jared, I'm gonna take it right at ya." There was no fear and Harrellson played like it.

He worked over the Big Ten's Freshman of the Year, both on the offensive and defensive ends. Though Sullinger would finish with a game-high 21 points and 16 rebounds, Harrellson's own performance (17 and 10) overshadowed that. He was methodical in backing down Sullinger on offense and kept the freshman from getting too much action on his end, particularly with that aforementioned defensive stand late in the game.

In short, Sullinger was great. Harrellson was better.

Going back to the video clip, it was a completely legal play by Harrellson. That's not to say it was a classy one though. It's like a tennis player hitting the ball directly at an opponent. The act itself is allowed by the rulebook, but it's considered bad form.

It took a little of that attitude to knock off the mighty Buckeyes. It will take a little more of it for Kentucky to advance to the Final Four.

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First Glance: Marshall grasps for a new way forward

An absurdly premature assessment of the 2011 Thundering Herd.

? Previously On… It had more to do with the front-loaded schedule than any midseason revelation, frankly, but a turnaround is a turnaround, and as far as the standings are concerned, Marshall's turn over the second half of 2010 was as sharp as any in the country. The Herd barreled into the offseason on the strength of four wins in their last five, rebounding from an ugly 1-6 start in which the lone win came by lone point when Ohio U's two-point conversion attempt to win came up empty with no time on the clock.

Obviously, it was a season that cried out of a spoonful of sugar. Marshall fired head coach Mark Snyder for going 6-6 in 2009 ?�his first non-losing season in five years and good enough to end a four-year bowl drought ?�and if successor Doc Holliday's first season represented a small step backward overall, at least the late surge salvaged some pretense of progress moving into year two.

? The Big Change. No one ever really looks forward to the transition from a two-year mainstay with 26 consecutive starts to an untested sophomore with exactly zero starts, but it's not like there are going to be any glowing halftime retrospectives of the Brian Anderson era anytime soon, either. Anderson was competent enough under center to hold on to his job for two years, but he finished both as one of the least efficient passers in Conference USA, and went out last year ranked last or next-to-last among regular league starters in efficiency, yards per attempt, completion percentage, total interceptions and touchdown:interception ratio. He had better numbers down the stretch against the likes of UAB, Memphis and Tulane, and got no help whatsoever from the running game (see below), but I still imagine Herd fans muttering to themselves throughout the season, "We crushed Willy Korn's dreams for this?"

The Least You Should Know About...

Marshall
In 2010
5-7 (4-4 Conference USA); Won four of last five after 1-6 start.
Past Five Years
2006-10: 24-37 (18-22 Conference USA); 5-15 in C-USA road games.
Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*
2007-11: N/A (No classes ranked in top 50 nationally).
Best Player
If he was really determined to, defensive end Vinny Curry could have used his breakout junior season in 2010 as a springboard to the NFL ? his official evaluation from the league "came back draftable" in January ?�and taken his chances as an undersized (officially: 6-4, 252 pounds) speed rusher somewhere in the middle rounds. Instead, he's back for one more run at "unfinished business," specifically a) A degree and b) The continued maiming of C-USA quarterbacks: Curry led the league last year in sacks (12) and tackles for loss (18), was credited with 16 quarterback hurries and got in on at least one QB takedown in nine different games.
Best Year Ever


Say what you will about the quality of Marshall's domain, but the Thundering Herd were its undisputed master on multiple levels throughout the 90s, beginning with a decade-long run that included seven top-10 finishes, six appearances in the I-AA championship game and two national titles from 1987-96. (The '96 team, featuring one Randy Moss, left an unprecedented trail of devastation en route to a 15-0 finish, still the last I-AA outfit to run the table through the regular season and playoffs 15 years later.) The step up to the I-A level in 1997 didn't diminish the dominance: The Herd took four straight MAC championships in their first four seasons in the conference, culminating in 1999 with a 13-0 record, another Heisman finalist (quarterback Chad Pennington) and a spot in the top 10 of the final polls.

Best Case
One of the new quarterbacks clicks and gets better run support to the tune of 26-28 points per game, Curry remains the most disruptive pass rusher in C-USA. 7-5, New Orleans Bowl, buzz reaffirms Doc Holliday as an up-and-comer in the profession.
Worst Case
Revolving door at quarterback, continued void in the running game; lack of second pass rusher allows opposing offenses to focus on and somewhat neutralize Curry. 3-9, no established quarterback coming out of the season, hot seat buzz begins in earnest for Holliday.
* Based on Rivals' national rankings (top 50 only)

The good news: There are enough candidates vying to replace Anderson that at least one of them will probably prove to be not a complete disaster. The bad: It may take weeks of actual game time to figure out who that is, because relevant data points are few and far between. Eddie Sullivan completed 6 of 24 passes last year as a true freshman (yes: 6 of 24) and provided the unfortunate "mah babeh!" moment at the top of the post; fellow sophomore A.J. Graham is a former "Mr. Football" in Florida who was arrested for robbery the night before his high school graduation. (The charges were later dropped.) With Graham, incoming freshman Rakeem Cato and former Michigan signee Conelius Jones in the mix, though, it's a good bet the offense will feature significantly more opportunities for the quarterback to run than it did for the stone-footed Anderson ? all the better to keep them from putting it in the air.

? Big Men On Campus. The defensive backs took their lumps in September ? Ohio State, West Virginia and Bowling Green combined to pass for 857 yards with six touchdowns and only one interception in Marshall's 0-3 start ?�but wound up as the best secondary in the conference by a mile: In C-USA play, the Herd easily led the league in pass defense by almost every conceivable measure except yards per game, and that was only because they faced more passes than any other team. (They came in third in that category, anyway.) By conference-wide standards, Marshall was well above average against the pass in every single C-USA game ? and yet somehow failed to place a single member of the secondary on the all-conference team, first or second team.

That should change this year with the entire cast returning intact, namely seniors Omar Brown and Rashad Jackson, junior Donald Brown and sophomore Monterius Lovett. An encore will go a long way to giving the makeshift offense a chance without forcing a very green quarterback to revert to permanent shootout mode.

? Open Casting. Shootout will remain the primary mode, however, without a complete transformation of the running game, which existed last year only in concept. Three different backs earned carries on a semi-regular basis, none of whom topped 350 yards for the season, scored more than one touchdown or managed to average above four yards per carry. Fifty-one individual players nationally ran for more yards than Marshall's top four rushers combined.

And Juniors Martin Ward and Andre Booker and scintillating-named sophomores Tron Martinez and Essray Taliaferro, who didn't touch the ball until well into November but fared slightly better (very slightly) in his few carries than the competition. Barring a surprise from one of a pair of true freshmen ? both from Lakeland, Fla., though not from the same high school ?�it will be a committee approach again, and barring the sudden transfer of five 340-pound Polynesians to play offensive line, it will be another nightmare scenario for trying to break in a new, young quarterback.

? Overly optimistic spring narrative. The defense gets back nine starters, can get to the quarterback thanks to Vinny Curry and doesn't give up a lot of big plays (relatively speaking) in the secondary. If the D can keep scores within reach, the sheer number of options at quarterback should yield someone who's good enough at something for the offense to keep pace. Raw and green as they are, Graham and Jones both have a relatively high ceiling as dual-threat types.

? The Big Question. Can the new quarterback carry the offense? The ground game can improve by a full 50 percent and still fell below the Mendoza line to qualify as "average." In the absence of ground support, the quarterback has to make plays; Anderson didn't, and the offense foundered, barely finishing above the truly desperate "attack" from Memphis as the worst in C-USA. It doesn't help that his first six games include dates with West Virginia, Southern Miss, Virginia Tech, Louisville and Central Florida, which looks like a recipe for another 1-5 (or even 0-6) start while the offense tries to figure something out, and another quasi-respectable finish against weaker competition. Graham and Jones also have relatively low floors. There's no indication on paper that this outfit can or will top last year's lame 20.8-points-per-game average, and if it somehow does, it won't be by much.

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Other premature assessments (in alphabetical order): Iowa State. … Nebraska. … Nevada. … South Florida.
Matt Hinton is on Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.

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Notre Dame faulted, fined in student’s fatal practice field fall

In retrospect, it probably didn't require a team of professionals to determine that Notre Dame student videographer Declan Sullivan, 20, shouldn't have been atop a hydraulic scissor lift overlooking Irish practice the day he fell to his death last October. Just a day earlier, practice had been forced indoors for the first time all season by a record-setting low-pressure front that had descended over the Midwest. South Bend was under a wind advisory before, during and after practice on the day Sullivan fell, when gusts reportedly topped 50 mph ? twice the manufacturer-recommended limit for most scissor lifts. Before practice even began, Sullivan himself cryptically tweeted, "Gust of wind up to 60mph well today will be fun at work... I guess I've lived long enough." About 10 minutes later, he posted from the tower, "Holy [expletive] holy [expletive] this is terrifying." The perch came down about 45 minutes later.
If those sound like unsafe working conditions to you, the Indiana Occupational Health and Safety Administration officially agreed Tuesday morning, classifying Sullivan's death as "a preventable workplace fatality" and fining Notre Dame $77,500 for a failure to "establish and maintain conditions of work that were reasonably safe for its employees" after a five-month investigation. Specifically, the university was hit with fines for each of six violations, according to the Chicago Tribune:

? Knowingly exposing its employees to unsafe conditions by directing its untrained student videographers to use the scissor lift during a period of time when the National Weather Service issued an active wind advisory with sustained winds and guests in excess of the manufactured specifications and warnings. $55,000 fine.
? Not properly training the student employees in the operation and use of scissor lifts. $5,000 fine.
? Not doing annual, monthly or weekly inspections on the scissor lift for more than a year. $5,000 fine.
? Not having a scissor lift service as required by the maintenance schedule in the operator's manual. $5,000 fine.
? Not having an operator's manual kept in a weather-proof box. $5,000 fine.
? Missing some warning labels and having some labels that were weathered and faded. $2,500 fine.

Where a human life is concerned, $77,500 isn't much. But the OSHA judgment could lay the groundwork for proving university negligence if Sullivan's family chooses to pursue a lawsuit that could cost Notre Dame significantly more.

To be fair, that remains a very vague and possibly even unlikely "if." On the website for the Declan Drumm Sullivan Memorial Fund, the family writes that "Dec was doing what he loved in the place he most wanted to be," and is working with the university about a memorial. They also praised the university's recent plan to ban hydraulic lifts altogether in favor of mounted cameras surrounding the field. Their priorities in grief do not necessarily include a cash settlement. Where the state of Indiana is concerned, though, the verdict ? if not the sum ?�still looks like some small measure of justice.
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Matt Hinton is on Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.

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Trade Steve Smith?! 5 Reasons the Carolina Panthers Should Do it Now

Trade the greatest player in Panther history? You think I am crazy?

Well, Steve's time has come and gone in Charlotte. He was second (that's right, second) on the team last year with TD catches at two, behind David Gettis' three.

Now, I know little Jimmy Clausen is not an NFL quarterback, but I have five reasons to trade Smitty now and help the Panthers' rebuilding process, and get back to the playoffs (playoffs?!). That's right—playoffs in the next year or two under new dynamic head coach Ron Rivera.

AND, the place I want to send him will make that team an immediate Super Bowl contender and get Smith back his reputation as one of the game's best.

Want to know where he goes and what the Panthers could get? Read on!

Begin Slideshow

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San Francisco Giants: Can the Giants Repeat as MLB World Series Champs in 2011?

The San Francisco Giants came out of nowhere last season to win the 2010 MLB World Series. It almost seemed as if the team absolutely took off once they acquired Cody Ross, who put together a phenomenal postseason.

The Giants have many of the same pieces in place from a year ago as they look to defend their championship this season. The pitching staff is still one of the best with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez Barry Zito and Madison Bumgarner, while Brian Wilson and his beard are still around to close out games. Although, Wilson could miss the first few weeks of the season.

World Series hero Juan Uribe was replaced by Miguel Tejada, but Pablo Sandoval has shed some pounds and is ready to regain the form he showed as a rookie.

The Giants have to compete with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies in the National League West, while the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks figure to dwell around the bottom of the division.

MLB.com assembled a panel of analysts to come up with predictions for the 2011 MLB season, and they agree that the Giants should defend their N.L. West crown.

Collectively, they said that "Apparently, the Giants won the World Series last year. Who knew? "I don't think we've got enough in our resume to be considered the favorite to go back to the World Series or the favorite to win the World Series," general manager Brian Sabean said. "And I think that's a good thing."

But the Giants do have a very good chance to get back to the World Series, even if they do have to get past the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves do so once again. Buster Posey will get a full season in, and the team also plans on using Brandon Belt at first base to start the season. Belt is another prospect who the Giants envision doing big things.

If San Francisco can remain healthy, then there is no reason to believe why they will not at least be in the discussion of best teams playing in October.

For more on the first pitches from every game, make sure to check out Bleacher Report Mets Featured Columnist Ash Marshall, who takes a look at MLB Opening Day 2011: 20 memories, Stats and Facts from Baseball's Opening Day.

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Getting to know the 2011 Final Four teams: Kentucky

This week, The Dagger takes a deeper look at each of the four schools participating in the 2011 Final Four. Next up, Kentucky. Previously: VCU and Butler.

Location: Lexington, Ky.

Enrollment: 28,037

Team Mascot: Wildcats

How they got to Houston: d. Princeton (59-57), d. West Virginia (71-63), d. Ohio State (62-60), d. North Carolina (76-69)

Greatest basketball moment: Take your pick from any of the seven title teams, but the 1995-1996 squad was the most dominant, finishing 34-2 after rolling through the SEC with a perfect mark and steamrolling opponents in the NCAA tournament.

Reason to root for them:

Reason to root against them: Nobody guarded the inbound:

How the school dealt with Final Four appearance on its main website page: It didn't. On Monday afternoon, there was no reference to the Wildcats on the front page of uky.edu. There was, however, something about "Math Madness" and an article about Maker's Mark.

Famous alumni: Ashley Judd

Famous alumni who didn't star in "Kiss the Girls": John Scopes, the defendant in the Scopes trial.

Smart quote to make others think you've been following Kentucky all along: "Jorts are the new black."

What not to say at your Final Four party: "Rick Pitino looks a little different than I remember him, but he still has tremendous hair."

What Clark Kellogg will probably say about Kentucky: "It all comes down to scoring. If the 'Cats can pointify every possession, watch out!"

Chances of winning it all: The Wildcats are the favorites to cut down the nets in Houston. As such, they stand little chance of actually doing so.

Jim Nantz's most likely scripted line if they do: "Houston is my old Kentucky home!"

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THE GREATEST POLL QUESTION EVER

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Is VCU the worst of Kansas’ crushing NCAA tourney losses?

Consider Sunday's 71-61 loss to VCU in the Elite Eight just another chapter in Kansas's now storied run of painful losses in the NCAA tournament over the last two decades.

Examples of postseason heartache for the program go much farther back, even as long ago as 1957, when KU and unstoppable force Wilt Chamberlain lost in triple overtime in the national title game to North Carolina. But the consistency of those upsets, for reasons unknown to anyone, increased starting in the early 1990s.

So where does the loss to 11th-seeded VCU rank? In making a Top Ten list, it definitely makes the cut.

And, of course, no one should cry poor for a program that just three years ago won a national championship. Along the way, though, there were several teams that could have done the same

Here's how the toughest of those losses stack up:

1) 1997 - No. 4 Arizona def. No. 1 Kansas, 85-82 (Sweet Sixteen)

This will likely always remain the greatest Kansas team to not win it all. The Jayhawks didn't lose to a slouch of an Arizona club, as the Wildcats ultimately won a surprising national title and did so with the likes of Mike Bibby, Jason Terry, Michael Dickerson and Miles Simon. Still, KU had four starters ? Paul Pierce, Scot Pollard, Jacque Vaughn and Raef LaFrentz ? who played in the NBA for at least a decade, and they were nearly unbeatable that season. Ask any long-time Kansas fan about that game to this day, and it's greeted either with a pained sigh or a shake of the head.

2) 2005 - No. 14 Bucknell def. No. 3 Kansas, 64-63 (First Round)

No Kansas postseason loss will ever be as shocking as this one, as it was the lowest-seeded team to ever knock the Jayhawks out of the dance. KU had some chemistry issues, with Self, in his second season, leading a team largely comprised of holdovers from the Roy Williams Era. It was roughly the same group, though, that advanced to the Elite Eight just a year earlier.

3) 2010 - No. 9 Northern Iowa def. No. 1 Kansas, 69-67 (Second Round)

Ali Farokhmanesh, with a dagger of a three in transition with 35 seconds remaining, earned himself a spot on the list of names forbidden to be mentioned in Lawrence, joining the likes of Cuttino Mobley and Gerry McNamara (those will be covered in a bit). That shot ultimately ended the college careers of Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich.

4) 2011 - No. 11 VCU def. No. 1 Kansas, 71-61 (Elite Eight)

Heck, you might as well add Jamie Skeen to that list squarely behind Farokhmanesh. He hit four of VCU's 12 3-pointers on Sunday in a game that Kansas was favored to win by double-digits. On the other side, the Jayhawks lived through an offensive nightmare, committing 14 turnovers (eight by junior forward Markieff Morris), going 2-of-21 from 3-point range and just 15-of-28 from the free throw line.

5) 1998 - No. 8 Rhode Island def. No. 1 Kansas, 80-75 (Second Round)

A year after the Arizona debacle, KU still had Pierce and LaFrentz and was just as dangerous. However, Rhode Island's back-court duo of Cuttino Mobley and Tyson Wheeler combined for 47 points off of 16-of-32 shooting to go with 13 assists in the second round stunner. After this one, Pierce became the first underclassman to declare as an early entrant for the NBA draft during Williams' tenure.

6) 1992 - No. 9 UTEP def. No. 1 Kansas, 66-60 (Second Round)

In between Final Four appearances in 1991 and 1993, KU was shocked by legendary coach Don Haskins for the second time. The first? The 1966 regional finals, when Texas Western became the first team to ever win an NCAA title with five African-American starters. There's a little history lesson for you amidst all this heartbreak.

7) 2006 - No. 13 Bradley def. No. 4 Kansas, 77-73 (First Round)

Just a year removed from the Bucknell loss, KU suffered a first round loss that was just as unexpected, but had a better built-in excuse. With major roster turnover, the Jayhawks were young, led by freshmen Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers and Julian Wright. It came as a surprise, though, as the team heated up down the stretch and blitzed through the Big 12 tournament untouched.

8) 2003 - No. 3 Syracuse def. No. 2 Kansas, 81-78 (National Championship)

In hindsight, can you really be ashamed of losing to a team that had Carmelo Anthony on college basketball's biggest stage? Not really. But it wasn't Anthony who did them in. Sure, he had 20 points and 10 boards, but pesky freshman Gerry McNamara came from nowhere to bury six 3-pointers. Meanwhile, KU was a horrific 12-of-30 from the free throw line. Despite all of those points left on the board, KU had a key opportunity late to tie with a 3-pointer from the corner. Hakim Warrick made sure it never made it very far. This went down as Williams' last game at Kansas.

9) 2002 - No. 1 Maryland def. No. 1 Kansas, 97-88 (National Semifinals)

True, this loss was to a fellow No. 1 seed, but if the 1997 team went down as KU's best team to never win it all, this was the second-best to come up agonizingly short. They had a loaded roster ?�Collison, Kirk Hinrich, Drew Gooden as juniors; Keith Langford, Wayne Simien, Aaron Miles as freshmen ?�and were the nation's hottest team for much of the season, going 16-0 in Big 12 play (no league team has done that since). What made this one even more difficult for KU to swallow was seeing 5-seed Indiana continue to overachieve in upsetting Oklahoma in the other national semi, essentially making this the real national championship tilt.

10) 2009 - No. 2 Michigan State def. No. 3 Kansas, 67-62 (Sweet Sixteen)

Another loss to a worthy opponent here. Michigan State went on the be the national runner-up, but what made this one so rough was how KU let it get away late. The Jayhawks led 60-55 with three minutes remaining, but allowed Sparty to close the game on a decisive 12-2 run.

Ryan Greene also covers UNLV and the Mountain West Conference for the Las Vegas Sun. Read his Rebels coverage and follow him on Twitter.

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FIVE SHORT STORIES ABOUT JIM TRESSEL SIGNING THINGS

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VCU’s improbable run continues with win over Kansas

VCU wasn't supposed to be in the tournament.

It was an outsider, a team that wasn't good enough, a team that should have been replaced by the likes of Colorado or Alabama, which were both on the NCAA tournament committee's "snub list."

VCU heard the complaints, the comparisons, the criticisms. The Rams internalized them and during each of the five games they've won through the NCAA tournament, including Sunday's 71-61 win over Kansas, they've let all of that negativity fuel them to victory.

"Our guys are playing with a definite chip on the shoulder after what was said about us by the media on [Selection] Sunday night," coach Shaka Smart said during his press conference earlier in the week. "This group is extremely competitive and anytime they are challenged, they're going to respond and that's what we're seeing right now. They have a high level of energy and communication on both sides of the court. They are playing unselfish basketball and most importantly they're playing loose and having fun. All that breeds from playing with confidence, which our guys are doing right now."

Sunday was no exception.

Kansas had successfully intimidated its Sweet 16 opponent Richmond and thought it could do the same thing to VCU. VCU guard Joey Rodriguez told the media after the game that during a captains meeting with officials before tip-off, one Kansas' Morris twins offered him some parting words: "The run ends here."

Rodriguez told him, "We'll see."

The lowest remaining seed in the tournament wasn't going to be intimidated because it was playing with house money. It had no pressure and had nothing to lose. The Rams came out loose, played tough defense and started hitting 3-pointers like that guy named Jimmer.

Kansas was stunned, unorganized, intimidated. Everything the Jayhawks thought little VCU would be feeling was exactly what Kansas was projecting. Even in the second half, when Kansas went on a run to cut the lead to four, VCU dug in its heels and wouldn't let go of the lead. No matter how much Kansas pressed, VCU never wavered, never freaked out, never wilted. It made key shots and stops when it had to, and never let Kansas control the game.

"I believe in these guys," Smart told CBS sideline reporter Craig Sager after the game. "They've never wavered in their hard work and their resiliency. We knew Kansas was going to make a run in the second half, but we never gave up that lead and our guys kept fighting."

VCU has won five games to get to the Final Four, the first team to ever accomplish that feat. It's only the third No. 11 seed to make the Final Four, but neither George Mason (2006) nor LSU (1986) made it to the final. Unlike those teams, which lost to No. 3 Florida and No. 2 Louisville respectively, VCU will face one of its own in the Final Four. A mid-major showdown against No. 8 Butler might not exactly be a ratings booster, but it will guarantee that at least one team outside of the Big Six conferences makes the final. It's almost fitting since VCU has managed to defeat a team from the Pac-10 (USC), the Big East (Georgetown), the Big Ten (Purdue), one from the ACC (Florida State) and now one from the Big 12.

If VCU wins, it would the lowest seeded team to ever appear in the national championship. In 1985, No 8 Villanova won it all.

VCU and Butler are the highest combined seeds to play each other in a Final Four.

Regardless of the outcome, VCU has already proven its critics wrong with an amazing run that no one thought was possible out of a team that finished fourth in the Colonial Athletic Association and probably wouldn't have made the tournament had it not played in the finals of the conference tournament.

But counting the Rams out would also be a mistake They've been underdogs all tournament, including an 11�-point dog against Kansas, and found a way to win. Expect more of that attitude that has defined this team on Saturday.

"I'm just so happy for all of our guys and all of our fans, just everyone who believed in us all the way," Smart told Sager. "We had to win five games to get here, but we did it."

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Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Men's Tennis: Djokovic Ominously Charges On, Fish Up Next

A crash of thunder would have appropriately summed up the day on the ATP tour today at the Miami Masters. We witnessed the unrelenting progress of a Serb hounding after, and the rise of a new American.

Well, maybe, not quite so new, Mardy Fish has been on tour a few years now, and has enjoyed his fair share of success. Including, of course, a run to the final at Indian Wells three years ago. Three years later, he is one round away from repeating a similar run at this time of the year. Today he contrived to defeat David Ferrer, that tenacious Spaniard, in straight sets, 7-5, 6-2. He was aided in some part by a strange collapse in resistance in the second set, but no doubt equally so by his booming, first-rate serve. Make no mistake, Fish's delivery would compare with Federer's or Roddick's at its best, and he boosts a fine kicker, too.

It seems American greatness goes together with a fine serve. It did for Pete Sampras, and for Andy Roddick, and now does so for Mardy Fish, who in winning today will surpass the latter as the number one American player. For the first time in a long while, then, Roddick will no longer lead US Tennis alone.

If there is anyone who is leading their country's fortunes single-handedly, however, it would have to be Novak Djokovic. Along with boasting an unbeaten record this year—now at 22-0—he can boast a sturdy un-sentimentality when he comes to playing countrymen. He fairly thrashed Victor Troicki, again, yesterday, 6-3, 6-2, only to concede just one more game today, in beating Kevin Anderson, 6-4, 6-2. The South African had stunned a weary Djokovic three years ago, but today had little chance to gain parity. If there is anything more fearsome than a big serve, it would be a big return, and Djokovic, by far the best returner on the planet, played big today.

So, Djokovic is on a 22-0 tear for 2011. Not even Federer or Nadal have ever managed so unbeaten a record for the first half of the year. They play tomorrow, in quarterfinal matches that should prove but prologues to what would be a blockbuster semifinal clash. Most likely, it would be one of these two who will face Djokovic in the final on Sunday. Fish is a great player, but one can hardly see him putting off the great Serb from a twenty-third consecutive victory.

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Making The Leap

One of the main points of optimism around these parts when it comes to the basketball team is its youth. Young players are usually not so efficient, usually not so safe with the ball, and teams featuring swaths of them usually don't play very well unless they're about to get some Final Fours vacated up in here.

Earlier this year I made the case that when people point to the ill-fated '09 team as a reason to rein your excitement in they weren't necessarily wrong, but they weren't necessarily right, either. Citing a Big Ten Geeks study that showed going from freshman to sophomore results in more improvement than going from a sophomore to senior, I pointed out how absurdly young Michigan was in not only minutes but in usage:

In 2009 freshmen played 31% of Michigan's minutes. This year it's 44%.

What's more, the second and third highest usage guys on the team are freshmen who play at least 60% of minutes. In 2009 Douglass and Novak had low usage and Laval Lucas-Perry was a mid-year transfer who only played 33.% of Michigan's minutes. The percentage of possessions used by freshman this year is vastly higher. Two years ago: 26%. Now: 45%.

Now that the season's over we've got a bit of an issue, though: Tim Hardaway did not have an average freshman year, nor did Jordan Morgan. We can expect Generic Freshman to improve a lot, but what about Incredible Freshman? The threat of regression to the mean looms.

The guys at Big Ten Geeks were kind enough to provide the raw data that they used for that study and I've set about whittling it down. My first thought was that I would chart freshman and sophomore ORtgs and throw together a polynomial trendline that would probably show guys who start off with a bang like Hardaway and Morgan improve a lot less than guys like Adreian Payne, the hyped MSU freshman who struggled to an 89.5 ORtg?horrible?in about nine minutes a game this year, because of regression and getting better quickly etc etc. That didn't come off because the data is a giant hairball.

Next idea: let's whittle down the data set to freshmen with profiles similar to Michigan's freshman trio and see what happened as sophomores. The Geeks study looks at minutes, ORtg, shot%, eFG%, and TO% from players who entered BCS conferences from 2000 to 2005. Only conference games are considered, which is fine for the Geeks' refinement of a vast lump of data but maybe not so good when we're looking at individual players on which we don't have a ton of info. I'm using the entire freshman seasons for Hardaway, Morgan, and Smotrycz; I'll point out conference numbers for each.

013011_SPT_UM vs IOWA_MRM Tim Hardaway, Jr.

Min% ORtg Shot% eFG TO%
76.2 108.8 26.3 52.0 11.1


Hardaway's in-conference ORtg was a hair under 112. Full season numbers are a good chunk more pessimistic.
Freshmen with usage and efficiency as high as Hardaway are extremely rare. Of the almost 700 players in the Geeks study only 14 finished their freshman years with a shot percentage over 25, an ORtg greater than 106, and played half their team's minutes. The names on the list are tantalizing even once you get past the group of total superstars who outperformed Hardaway's freshman year. Those superstars:
  • JJ Redick (Duke): 115 ORtg
  • Tyler Hansbrough (UNC): 120
  • Chris Lofton (Tennessee): 128
  • Anthony Roberson (Florida): 115
  • Craig Smith (BC):  113 with 29 shot%
  • Chris Taft (Pitt): 112 with 28 shot%

These guys* are in Hardaway's range:

  • Darius Rice(Miami): 110
  • Rick Rickert(Minnesota): 112
  • Caron Butler(UConn): 110
  • Kevin Pittsnogle(Yes That Pittsnogle): 107
  • Mike Sweetney (Georgetown): 108
  • Dominic James (Marquette): 107
  • Aaron Bruce (Baylor): 107

I probably don't have to tell you about Butler, Sweetney, or Pittsnogle. Darius Rice actually sat out his freshman year as a non-qualifier; he was Miami's star player for the entirety of his career. Rickert was kind of a headcase, entered the NBA draft after his sophomore year, got punched by Kevin Garnett, and became an Australasian National Basketball League All Star. James had an explosive freshman year but turned into Bracey Wright afterwards and eventually didn't get drafted.

Bruce is from Australia (seriously) and his career, like his toilet, went in reverse: he was awesome as a freshman but his minutes, points, an efficiency steadily declined over the course of his career, or at least would have if he didn't shoot 33% on twos as a sophomore despite being a 40% three point shooter. What happened? Well, Baylor almost got the death penalty because their coach covered up a murder. Baylor's nonconference schedule was cancelled. So? yeah. That's kind of an outlier. Let's drop him.

What happened to the guys in the range as sophomores? Here's a table. I bolded improvements.

Team Player Min Delta ORtg Delta Shot% Delta eFG Delta TO Delta
Mia Rice 1.2 -3.3 1.5 -2.5 -0.4
Minn Rickert 11.3 -8.4 4.9 -8.4 -6.9
UConn Butler 14.4 3.4 4.0 5.9 -0.3
GTown Sweetney 14.0 6.1 -2.1 -0.5 0.3
Marq James 6.4 -8.1 -0.9 -11.7 -2.2
WVU Pittsnogle -10.5 -1.1 4.5 0.0 -0.3
AVERAGE   7.1 -1.6 2.1 -2.9 -1.9

On the whole they shot more but less effectively, turned it over slightly less, and played slightly more. Individually, James collapsed and Rickert turned into Dion Harris (apparently except punchable). Rice ended up treading water.

Pittsnogle was a heroic, heroic shooter to keep up his 53.6(!) eFG rate while launching almost a third(!) of WVU shots when he was on the floor but didn't even start. Someone should ask Beilein how he could have played a guy who shot 50% from 2 and 43% from 3 less than 20 minutes a game in 2005-06. Butler and Sweetney took major steps forward, especially Butler. Butler was off to the lottery; Sweetney stuck around, then got drafted in the top ten.

The Upshot

Tim Hardaway's freshman season was ridiculous, and as a bouncy 6'5" wing forward his closet comparable on the list is Caron Butler. Unfortunately, Michigan can't expect him to do what Butler did?that leap in production is Morris-like and obviously an outlier?and his cohort ran in place as sophomores, losing efficiency but taking more of the load. His late-season improvement suggests he's already better than his full year numbers indicate, though, and while he can't add many minutes he can maintain his shooting over the course of the season and become more of an assist guy as he develops a drive to the bucket.

*[Ed: The dataset included Carl Landry, a JUCO transfer, and former UGA guard Ezra Williams. I dropped Landry for obvious reasons and after looking Williams up on the internet I think there's an error somewhere. ESPN shows no games for him; Statsheet shows a 42% FG shooter who shot 30% from 3 and had 2 assists per game, so his shiny ORtg seems improbable. The dataset also shows Williams dropping ORtg at the same time Statsheet says he went from a 30% three point shooter to 40% while nearly doubling his attempts. Not sure if that's a data error or just an amazingly strong effect from dropping nonconference games; either way I think his individual case is not representative. He was a good, not great, college player FWIW.]

Jordan Morgan

jordan-morgan

Min% ORtg Shot% eFG TO%
59.6 109.0 20 62.7 19.2


Morgan's in-conference ORtg dips to just under 107. While I think the full-season number for Hardaway is more realistic, here I think the conference number might be better. We'll use the same methodology as Hardaway, though.

Morgan doesn't narrow down the dataset quite as extensively but he's not far off. His parameters: >50% minutes, ORtg between 106 and 112, Shot% between 18 and 22. Results: a list of 13 players featuring Dee Brown, Devin Harris, Rajon Rondo, Courtney Sims, Josh Shipp, Ryan Gomes, and some guy named Williams who played for UNC I'm pretty sure is named Jawad but can't be certain. The average player on the list was awesome in college. Morgan crushed all of them in eFG% save Colorado C, McDonald's All-American, and eventual first round pick David Harrison. This is a tribute to Beilein, Morgan, and especially Darius Morris.

We've got some more names here so let's narrow it down to forward/center types. We'll add in an average for all 13 players as well. Those guys:

Team Player Min Delta ORtg Delta Shot% Delta eFG Delta TO Delta
Colorado David Harrison 2.7 -7.9 0.4 -16.9 -4.7
LSU Brandon Bass -6.8 7.4 4.5 5.8 -2.6
Prov Ryan Gomes 0 2.0 5.7 -2.1 1.4
Mich Courtney Sims -0.5 -11.2 1.4 0.3 8
AVERAGE just the posts -1.2 -2.4 3.0 -3.2 0.5
ALL all 13 4.0 -1.2 3.0 -2.3 -1.3

You know all about Sims and his infuriating career. As a sophomore his TO% shot from a bad 17.5 to an impossible 25.5; he only played half the available minutes each year. He'd end up randomly dominating four games every year, then disappearing for long stretches.

Harrison's massive eFG% regression was all but inevitable after he put up a 66.1 as a freshman. He bounced back to near-freshman numbers the next year and ended up a late first round pick.  Bass blew up, left for the draft, and went at the top of the second round. Gomes got better, then just kept getting better. After going 0 for 3 from three in his first two years at Providence he was a 38% three-point shooter as a senior. He was drafted at the tail end of the second round but stuck in the NBA; he's now a Clipper. He's averaged about 12 points a game the last few years.

The Upshot

These are all very good college players (and Courtney Sims), but I think we all know a significant chunk of Morgan's production would not exist if he wasn't running the pick and roll with Darius Morris. His cohort ran in place and the posts actually took a small step back. Harrison's eFG% change is a bit ominous, since he's the only player on the list with a number anywhere near Morgan's insane 63%.

evan-smotrycz-duke Evan Smotrycz

Min% ORtg Shot% eFG TO%
44.2 99.8 23 51.8 15.4

Smotrycz drops to a 96 ORtg?one spot worse than Douglass?in conference play.

I thought Smotrycz's relatively pedestrian numbers would bring a flood of candidates but when you look for guys with between 35 and 55 percent of minutes, an ORtg between 96 and 102, and a shot percentage between 21 and 25 you only get eight players.

There are ten that popped up but I chucked out a couple of JUCO transfers for obvious reasons. One, former FSU guard Monte Cummings, was in the army, served a tour of duty in Bosnia, and then hit FSU at 24. He's now in the Finnish league but got in some trouble for weed. He has a more interesting life than you do.

Anway, this is a less notable group of names but the good news is they collectively blew up as sophomores:

Team Player Min Delta ORtg Delta Shot% Delta eFG Delta TO Delta
Bama Alonzo Gee 18.6 -7.7 1.9 -15.5 -5.1
Stanford Lawrence Hill 40.5 22.6 5.0 12.3 -1.3
Stanford Josh Childress 32.8 9.7 1.9 0.6 -2.5
Oregon Luke Jackson 17.8 22.0 3.6 6.8 -6.1
Nova Allan Ray 14 17.5 8 10.7 -3.6
Rutgers JR Inman 34.3 -6.4 4.1 -9.6 -2.0
Kansas Julian Wright 23.0 6.3 1.2 -5.0 -4.6
BC Sean Marshall 1.4 6.3 3.5 5.2 -1.2
AVERAGE   22.8 8.8 3.7 0.7 -3.3

(Only Ray and Gee were above 100 as freshmen here, so the numbers are biased towards the lower end of the range?even if you take Smotrycz's conference numbers this is a pretty fair comparison.)

So that's a bunch of guys who got insanely better, Gee, and one guy (Inman) who took to Facebook to accuse his former head coach of "cook[ing] a steak of turmoil" for ruining his senior year, seemingly because he can't play basketball.

The Upshot

It's probably not realistic to expect Smotrycz to see all of the vast improvement his cohort did because I'm betting all of the players above played on teams that lost players in the offseason. If Darius Morris does what it seems the world expects him to that won't be the case at Michigan and Smotrycz isn't suddenly going to be logging 85% of Michigan's minutes. However, there's no reason he can't be significantly more efficient even if he's coming off the bench.

Collective Upshot

Caron Butlerjordan-morgan-dunkjosh-childress

Caron Butler, Jordan Morgan, and Josh Childress

The freshmen == improvement meme gets a little sketchy once you get into the rarefied air Morgan and Hardaway reside in. Both of their cohorts essentially didn't improve at all. They didn't get worse?increased usage is naturally paired with decreased ORtg?but each leap into the stratosphere was coupled with one guy treading water and one guy regressing badly.

Michigan fans who watched the two guys play all year know who is who in that situation. Morgan is probably going to tread water. His offense is dependent on other players, his eFG% already massive, and his athleticism is just okay. He's likely to regress to the mean in his shooting and while he'll cut down on the turnovers* and up other bits of his game all that adds up to pretty much the same guy. His improvement will have to come on the defensive end (read: STOP FOULING).

Hardaway, on the other hand, exists in even more rarefied air if you look at the tougher conference schedule. His three point shooting streak extends over the second, tougher half of an entire frickin' year and he's got the physical ability to dominate his position, unlike Morgan. Also his dad is Tim Hardaway.

As for Smotrycz, everyone's giving him an owlish look and hoping he spends the offseason sleeping in the gym so he can be the guy he was supposed to be after he blew up on the AAU circuit two summers ago. His cohort saw three people turn into All-American-type players, three people get a lot better and two guys regress. Split the difference and Michigan should be able to expect efficiency out of him similar to what they got out of Hardaway this year, albeit at considerably reduced usage. Josh Childress is a bit much, but of Michigan's three freshmen he's the most likely to look like a different player next year.

*[Of course Courtney Sims is the lone significant exception to this rule. Argh.]

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First Glance: Iowa State dusts itself off, again

An absurdly premature assessment of the 2011 Cyclones.

? Previously On… Nobody starts out gunning for the title of "Best 5-7 Team in America," but if you happen to be 5-7 ?�and especially if you happen to be accustomed to being 5-7 ?�you can do a lot worse than Iowa State in 2010: The Cyclones took out a pair of bowl teams (Northern Illinois and Texas Tech) by double digits, stunned Texas in Austin, came up one crazy fake extra point short of shocking Nebraska in overtime and still had a chance to sneak into a bowl game in the season finale. On the other hand, they were also blown out by rival Iowa, 35-7, and whipped in November by both lame-duck Colorado (34-14) and Missouri (14-0) with the postseason within their grasp, leaving coach Paul Rhoades' second season looking like a sideways step at best on the heels of his solid, 7-6 debut in 2009.

? The Big Change. Quarterback Austen Arnaud and running back Alexander Robinson weren't just the biggest names on the offense for three years; statistically, they've been virtually the only names worth paying attention to. Between Arnaud's arm and Robinson's legs, the pair accounted for 84 percent of the Cyclones' total offense as sophomores in 2008, nearly 80 percent in 2009 and 77 percent last year. The simultaneous exit of the team's top two receivers leaves the offense totally bereft of proven playmakers, and down an All-Big 12 center, to boot.

That's not to suggest they left a very high bar to clear ?�the Cyclones were next-to-last in the league in total and scoring offense, after finishing dead last in scoring in 2009 ? only that no one's ever seen the new kids jump. If anyone's going to fill Robinson's role as primary playmaker on offense, it's shifty Shontrelle Johnson, a Florida transplant who did most of his damage as a true freshman on kick returns but made the most of his limited chances in the backfield: He went over 100 yards rushing with a 61-yard touchdown in the shootout win over Texas Tech, broke off a 38-yarder against Utah and left half of Kansas' defense icing down its ACLs on the sideline with this 33-yarder:

Still, after shaking up the Jayhawks, Johnson touched the ball a grand total of four times for eight yards over the last three games, hardly the work of an exciting up-and-comer. At best, he'll emerge as another competent role player with the occasional flash of an extra gear, a la Robinson, but the Cyclones lack anything resembling a consistent home-run hitter.

The Least You Should Know About...

Iowa State
In 2010
5-7 (3-5 Big 12); 4-3 at home, 1-4 on the road.
Past Five Years
2006-10: 21-40 (9-31 Big 12); Three head coaches.
Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*
2007-11: N/A (no classes ranked in Rivals top 50)
Best Player
Linebacker Jake Knott was a nothing recruit out of a central Iowa town with a population of barely 5,000 people (Waukee, also the hometown of Joey Jordison, drummer for Des Moines-based freak metal band Slipknot), but made a big name for himself as a sophomore with a team-high 130 tackles, four interceptions, four forced fumbles and a spot on the All-Big 12 team. At least one opposing coach cast his ballot for Knott as the league's Defensive Player of the Year.
Best Year Ever

Iowa State has never finished undefeated, even in the early days when it took on local high schools and so forth, and hasn't won a conference championship since sharing the Missouri Valley crown in 1912. But no ISU outfit in the intervening 100 years has come closer than the 1938 edition, which started the season 7-0 with back-to-back wins at Nebraska and Missouri before stumbling into a tie at Kansas State and a 10-0 loss at undefeated, Orange Bowl-bound Oklahoma to close the year. There were only a couple bowl bids to go around in those days, but the '38 team finished 7-1-1 and cracked the Associated Press poll for the first — and for 34 more years, only — time in school history. Here's a video of Iowa State campus scenes shot in the winter of 1938 — no sign of the football team, but there are men playing unidentifiable musical instruments and literally cranking a car by hand.
Best Case
Jantz and Johnson provide some spark for the offense, defense improves against the run, 'Clones pull a pair of road upsets at UConn and Baylor. 6-6, TicketCity Bowl.
Worst Case
Revolving door at quarterback, spotty production from the running game, minimal improvement on defense. Winless as underdogs in every Big 12 game. 1-11, new hot seat for Paul Rhoads.
* Based on Rivals' national rankings

? Big Men On Campus. The Cyclones were typically bad against the run (technically, they were bad at everything, with the possible exception of net punting), but at least found a pair of cornfed mainstays in linebackers Jake Trott and A.J. Klein, first-year starters who combined for more total tackles (241) as sophomores than any other combo in the Big 12. Those two aren't going to resurrect the moribund pass rush, but they should lead a charge up the ranking is all-purpose run defense: In general, the front seven rotation was extremely green last fall, and banged up. Pending a couple ongoing legal cases, it will also return almost entirely intact this fall, and frankly can't be much worse.

? Open Casting. The mass exodus on offense might be a bigger concern if the attack was any good in the first place,�and if the practice field this spring wasn't littered with candidates vying to pick up the slack under center. At least four would-be successors to Arnaud's mediocre throne are duking it out, and at least two more will show up with the incoming freshman class in the fall.

At the head of the pack for the moment is a) Last year's backup, Jerome Tiller, who's sole claim to fame in two years is a fluky 47-yard touchdown pass that sparked ISU's 9-7 upset at Nebraska in 2009, an otherwise dismal afternoon punctuated by seven Cornhusker turnovers; and b) Splendidly-named juco transfer Steele Jantz, who initially walked on at Hawaii before breaking out last year at the City College of San Francisco, his first full season as a quarterback at any level. They be wary of admitting it, but secretly, ISU fans are hoping they uncovered a late-blooming gem. Who just happens to wear a legitimate fauxhawk.

? Overly optimistic spring narrative. It may be a longshot, but Iowa State is so far behind the curve in Big 12 recruiting that a a guy like Jantz ? a sudden riser with good size, respectable wheels and fairly crazy numbers in a situation where even his juco coaches were apparently counting on another guy to beat Jantz out for the job ?�is about as good a chance as the Cyclones have of finding the offensive star they've so sorely lacked since Seneca Wallace graced the depth chart almost a decade ago. With an above average quarterback, there's always enough competent skill talent to get something done offensively, which the Cyclones clearly have not in coordinator Tom Herman's first two years.

? The Big Question. Does their fate really lie in the hands of an obscure transfer? Well, no; if Jantz was named the starter tomorrow, he'd probably rank ninth or tenth among projected Big 12 quarterbacks, if not at the bottom. But the fact that the great unknown represents the best-case scenario tells you all you need to know about the not-so-great known. Tiller's brief cameos in place of Arnaud have been underwhelming. No one else who's touched the ball in an actual game has shown much more. The defense needs a vast leap forward just to qualify as "middle of the pack," even by Big 12 standards. If there's any hope at all of getting back above .500, it might as well come from an unexpected lightning bolt.

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Other premature assessments (in alphabetical order): Nebraska. … Nevada.

Matt Hinton is on Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.

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‘Energy vampires’ are very real, and Gene Chizik can prove it

When you first read Auburn coach Gene Chizik's pledge to remain on guard against "energy vampires" that threaten to waste his valuable time and verve, you probably thought he was making the term up. What is an "energy vampire," anyway? A talk radio host? A random blogger? An actor with lightning for fangs?

In fact, the concept of an "energy vampire" was pioneered by the famed dentist turned celebrity "hypnotherapist," Dr. Bruce Goldberg, to describe an "unhappy lot" of people who "seem to drain the energy of those unprotected people around them" by various means. These are "well-meaning, normal people" who are nevertheless inclined to launch "premeditated psychic attacks" to bolster their own life forces at the expense of others'.

"You will observe this process at work in any public gathering," Dr. Goldberg writes, and so Gene Chizik has, having carefully observed and documented examples of each of Goldberg's five types of energy vampires throughout his career:

The Ethereal Type: LES MILES, SEC West rival.
Dr. Goldberg says: "Existential terror is the predominant issue of an ethereal type. Most often these troubled souls have been tortured to death in previous lives for their metaphysical beliefs or practices. Their only escape was to leave the body, so out-of-body experiences are the norm with them today."

Common traits of the Ethereal Type
? Leaving their physical body often throughout the day.
? Weak boundaries and tendency to spend as much time as possible on the spiritual realms.
? Difficulty relating to linear time.

"The result of these inclinations is both withdrawal and aggression. They become aggressive and angry when forced to function on the earth plane. Their psychic attack on you is rarely premeditated, but nonetheless you must protect yourself from these individuals."

The Insecure Type: MARK MANGINO, former Big 12 North rival.
Dr. Goldberg says: "The main issue with insecure types is nurturance. These souls have been through many incarnations during which there simply was not enough food or love to go around. They usually were abandoned at some time in their present life, and fear it will happen again."

Common traits of the Insecure Type
? Feeling that everyone around them is draining their energy; their response is to suck the energy from others to compensate.
? Compulsive, classically overweight and susceptible to addictions of all kinds.
? Energy needs and nurturing requirements that will never be satisfied. To solve this deficiency, they must persist in draining the energy from others, creating a vicious cycle.

"Never stand directly in front of this person. Do not make eye contact with him or her, if possible. Encourage them with words, but do not offer to do things for them. Remember these individuals live in constant fear of rejection and abandonment. Do not let your pity for them be a basis for you being their next victim."

The Paranoid Type: NICK SABAN, nemesis.
Dr. Goldberg says: "Paranoid types are soldiers still trying to win a war that no longer exists against an enemy that has long since perished. They do not trust anyone.� Everyone is their enemy and life is their battleground. Fear is everywhere and an ingrained part of their personality makeup."

Common traits of the Paranoid Type
? Inability to admit defeat: To lose for a paranoid is to admit that they are bad.
?�Hard workers, obsessive-compulsive, usually quite healthy physically.
? Never enough time for them to accomplish their various goals.

"Paranoid types are seductive, but are incapable of long-term relationships. They insist you agree with their often-distorted view of the world. In reality, they want you to argue with them. This way they can win the argument and prove to themselves that they are good and you are bad. Never argue with this person. Refrain from making eye contact with them. Lower and soften your voice when you speak to them, and change the topic to something pleasant."

The Passive-Aggressive Type: LANE KIFFIN, fellow SEC coaching hire, class of 2008.
Dr. Goldberg says: "Invasion and being controlled is the chief concern of the passive-aggressive type. During several past incarnations, they experienced being controlled and trapped in situations, and prevented from being able to express themselves in ways they wanted to. They may have been slaves, prisoners, or been victimized by religion or governments."

Common traits of the Passive-Aggressive Type
? Lacks autonomy. Constantly strives to involve other people in their lives.
? Lives in the now, and never plans or thinks about the future.
? Self-expression is unknown to the passive-aggressive type.
"This type of individual creates an internal world of unclear, undifferentiated fantasies and ideas, with fear at the core of this world. They imprison themselves and project loneliness, desperation, and resentment toward everyone they contact. It is impossible for them to express anger."

The Robot Type: URBAN MEYER, once and future champion.
Dr. Goldberg says: "The main issue of robotic types is authenticity. They are denying their true self. During previous lifetimes, they had to keep up the appearance of being perfect in order to survive. They were most likely in charge of running things, as they probably are now."

Common traits of the Robot Type
? Constant fear that something is missing and life is progressing without them.
?�To deal with this reality, robot types try to become even more perfect.
? High-paying job, good reputation, perfect spouse and family, appearance of perfect health.
"The more inauthentic they act, the more meaningless the world appears. Others envy their lifestyle. People come to them with their problems. The robot types never attain satisfaction from life, and come across as a blank. They function as if on automatic pilot and are often removed from your conversation."

Clearly, Gene Chizik has succeeded in his field because of his recognition that these five types of psychic parasites must be identified and dealt with accordingly, or a psychic attack upon his and his team's wellbeing is inevitable. And also his recognition that he can achieve a brief hypnotic effect in opponents via Trooper Taylor's towel.

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All quotes are verbatim from Goldberg's very real article on energy vampires on his personal site. Hat tip: David Morrison.
Matt Hinton is on Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.

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