Monday, January 24, 2011

Draft Bomb: Early exits and fallout at Auburn, Alabama and beyond

The deadline for underclassmen to declare for the NFL Draft came and went over the weekend with 47 confirmed names on the list, slightly up from last year. Unlike 2010, on the other hand, when more than a third of the early draft entries came from just five teams, this year's early departures are more spread out: Only three teams are sending more than two players into the meat grinder, and none are sending more than three. Still, as always, a handful of teams took it on the chin especially hard in the process:

Auburn. In the genre of one-year wonders, the Tigers' run to the BCS championship is a masterpiece: In one year, Auburn rose from 8-5, Outback Bowl-winning also-ran to master of all it surveys on the strength of two former JUCO transfers, Cam Newton and Nick Fairley, who closed the season as arguably the most dominant offensive and defensive players in college football, respectively. Both are en route to the NFL, along with leading receiver Darvin Adams, for good measure. Altogether, the Tigers will defend their championship in 2011 minus their starting quarterback, their leading rusher, two of their top four receivers, four starting offensive linemen, their top two pass rushers and four of their top five tacklers – an unprecedented exodus for a champion in the BCS era.

Alabama. 'Bama had more potential targets than any other team, by far, and avoided total devastation by hanging on to a pair of All-SEC defenders, safety Mark Barron and linebacker Don'ta Hightower, who'll lead an essentially intact unit in the fall. But the D's only notable loss is a major one, defensive lineman Marcell Dareus, and the offense will miss two of the major stars in school history, running back Mark Ingram and receiver Julio Jones, one of whom happens to have a Heisman Trophy to his name. Even if you think Trent Richardson's return in the backfield negates Ingram's exit, Jones' departure threatens to submarine the passing game, which starts over with sophomore-to-be AJ. McCarron replacing outgoing quarterback Greg McElroy and no receivers who managed even half of Jones' totals in catches or yards.

If any of that trio had passed on the draft – especially Jones, who looks like the most irreplaceable – the Tide would be the preseason darling again for the second year in a row. Instead, they'll cede the title to Oklahoma and go in search of a new star to fuel the passing game.

Illinois. Beleaguered Illinois fans actually had a solid foundation for optimism on the heels of a 38-14 Texas Bowl rout lifted the Fighting Illini to the all-too-rare winning record (7-6); obviously, that cannot stand. Two weeks later, the Illini were bidding adieu to their three best players, running back Mikel Leshoure, defensive tackle Corey Liuget and even linebacker Martez Wilson, who isn't projected as a first-round pick despite a long-awaited, All-Big Ten effort as a junior. Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase, the most infrequent passer among full-time Big Ten starters with Leshoure by his side as a redshirt freshman, will shoulder the burden this fall a year earlier than expected.

Missouri. The Tigers didn't get as much out of big-armed, prototype quarterback Blaine Gabbert as the pros apparently expect to get – he's set to go in the top 10 in April, likely as the first quarterback off the board, despite finishing eighth in the Big 12 in pass efficiency – but Gabbert and edge rushing Aldon Smith are the two players on either side of the ball Mizzou could least afford to lose with a realistic shot at the first post-realignment championship in the slimmed-down Big 12. With the exception of a rebuilding secondary, the Tigers should be in good shape elsewhere, but it's not the kind of program that can absorb the loss of two first-round picks in one fell swoop, especially when one of them is the starting quarterback.

Georgia. The Bulldogs had plenty of draft-worthy talent for a 6-7 outfit, and the best of the bunch – high-flying wide receiver A.J. Green and pass rusher par excellence Justin Houston – after back-to-back All-SEC campaigns by both. Their exits will cost Georgia its only notable playmaker on offense and leave the defense with three new starters at linebacker heading into a make-or-break year for Mark Richt's future.

Pittsburgh. Dion Lewis and Jonathan Baldwin were two of the more disappointing stars in the country, on one of the more disappointing teams, falling well short of All-America projections as the Panthers staggered to a 7-5 regular season that cost coach Dave Wannstedt his job; Baldwin was frustrated enough by his mediocre numbers to charge Pitt with "purposely trying to disrupt my draft stock." But he still turned in an All-Big East-caliber season, and Lewis still went over 1,000 yards on the ground thanks to a late surge. Incoming coach Todd Graham will have to dredge up some as-yet undiscovered playmakers of his own from the depth chart.

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Matt Hinton is on Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.

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