In the same spirit as yesterday's post. Check out jamiemac's Diary on the Bracket Matrix for more breakdowns as they specifically relate to Michigan.
Tales from Last Night
All the games in which Michigan had a semi-serious rooting interest last night went the wrong way (though most of those results were expected):
- Notre Dame beat Villanova 93-72.
- Florida Gulf Coast beat USC Upstate 81-65.
- Bethune-Cookman beat NC Central 73-60.
- Kansas State beat Texas 75-70. The Longhorns have singlehandedly choked their way into getting Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas State onto the bubble.
- Gonzaga beat Cal State-Bakersfield 96-49.
None of these were killers, to say the least, but Kansas State is solidly in the tournament at this point.
The Bubble
The Matrix hasn't been updated since last night's results, so consider it a day-ish behind. The information isn't changing quickly enough for that to be a huge hindrance to our purposes.
Per the Bracket Matrix:
| Bids | Bubble In | Bubble Out | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big East | 11 | Marq (10) | None. | |
| SEC | 6 | Tenn (9), UGa (10), Bama (12) | None. | |
| Big Ten | 6 | Ill (10), MSU (11), Mich (12) | Minn, PSU | MSU down from 10, Mich in, Minn out. |
| ACC | 5 | BC (12), VT (10), FSU (9) | Clem, Mary | Seeds reshuffled. |
| Big 12 | 5 | KSU (8) | Neb, Bay, Colo, OkSt | KSU up from 9. |
| Pac-10 | 3 | Wash (9), UCLA (8) | USC, Washington St. | Washington down from 8. |
| Atlantic 10 | 3 | Richmond (11) | Dayton | Duquesne gone. |
| Mountain West | 3 | UNLV (8) | Colo St | None. |
| West Coast | 2 | Zaga (12), St Mary's (11) | None. | |
| Colonial | 2 | Old Domin (8) | VCU | None. |
| CUSA | 2 | Memphis (11), UAB (12) | USM, UTEP, Marsh, UCF | None. |
| WAC | 1 | Utah State (9) | ||
| Horizon | 1 | Butler (12) | Cleve St, UW-Mil | |
| Summit | 1 | 1-bid Oakland (13) | ||
| Ivy | 1 | 1-bid Princeton (13) | Harvard | Princeton in, Harvard out. |
I've excised all of the conferences that are going to have 1 bid no matter what, because they won't affect our bubble watch (unless a past Michigan opponent goes on a crazy run and wins the conference tourney, of course).
Today's Games
As always, your general principle is to root against all teams on the bubble, whether they're in the tournament for now, or just barely on the outside. Things get a little more complicated when Michigan's past opponents are involved.
- Illinois @ Purdue (7:00 ESPN). Since Michigan played each of these teams only once, I think you want Purdue to win. The Wolverines are fighting with Illinois for a bubble spot.
- Baylor @ Oklahoma State (7:00 ESPN2). Both of these teams are on the outside of the Big 12 bubble. I think you want Baylor to win, since they're more likely to lose their final game to Texas (well, with the way Texas is playing, who knows?) than Oklahoma state is to lose to Oklahoma.
- Alabama @ Florida (7:00 ESPNU). You want Florida to win. They are solidly in the tournament, whereas Alabama is a hardly-deserving bubble team. This could knock them out.
- Gardner-Webb @ Coastal Carolina (7:00 Gametracker). Gardner-Webb is a past Michigan opponent. They're facing Big South 1-seed Coastal Carolina in the first round of the conference tournament. An upset here would be nice, since this is a 1-bid conference either way.
- Kent State @ Bowling Green (7:30 ESPN3). Bowling Green is a past opponent. Kent State currently leads the MAC, but it is a 1-bid league either way.
- Missouri @ Nebraska (8:00 ESPN3). Missouri is solidly in the tournament, whereas Nebraska is barely on the bubble. This would definitely knock the Huskers out for good.
- Ohio State @ Penn State (9:00 BTN). I'm torn on this game. With a sweep of the Nittany Lions under our belt, you want them to be a top-50 RPI team. On the other hand, that means they strengthen their bubble position, harming Michigan. I still think a tiebreaker of 2-0 head-to-head between UM and PSU would swing things in Michigan's way. I'll say watch this game closely, but no clear rooting interest.
- Boston College @ Virginia Tech (9:00 ESPNU). This is another game that you could go either way on. One team will knock the other onto the wrong side of the bubble for the time being. I'll say you want BC to lose, since they have a near-automatic win (against Wake Forest at home) up next. You'll be rooting HARD for Clemson to beat Virginia Tech on Saturday.
Get your rootin' shoes on. Hopefully, it'll go better than last night. It should, as you want Kenpom's favored team to win 4 of the 7 games in which there's a clear rooting interest - he also favors Ohio State to knock Penn State down the pecking order, for what it's worth. Last night, we were pulling almost exclusively for underdogs (and a crappy Texas team).
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