Wednesday, March 9, 2011

First Glance: Nebraska awoke to find itself in a strange conference...

Introducing the annual team-by-team countdown – in no particular order – with an absurdly premature assessment of the 2011 Cornhuskers.

Previously on… Nebraska's stock rose just high enough for just long enough last fall – into the top five in October for the first time since 2001 – to really feel the crash at the end: An impressive 9-1 start crumbled into a 1-3 finish, with the Big 12's most improbably explosive offense fizzling amid injuries and predictability and crapping out in the conference championship game for the second year in a row.

That's not the way the 'Huskers had prepared to ride off into the Big Ten: The sour finish extended their Big 12 title drought to a full decade as they , and betrayed the best overall Nebraska outfit since the '01 edition played for the national crown. The cross-conference transition is made even sourer by the Holiday Bowl flop against Washington, the same team they'd trounced by five touchdowns in September. Back when they were running on all cylinders.

The Big Change. The campaign to reverse the malaise on offense begins at the top, where longtime play-caller Shawn Watson – the last holdover from the late, unlamented Bill Callahan administration – was unceremoniously demoted last month in favor of running backs coach Tim Beck. Unlike Watson, whose efforts to revamp Callahan's "West Coast" attack veered from the spread to the read option to the Wildcat to a power running game to the West Coast and back again, Beck brings a reputation as a "true" spread disciple from his days at Kansas, where he was the passing game coordinator during the Jayhawks' 12-1 Orange Bowl run in 2007 – a surprise success Nebraska fans should remember all too well.

As long as Taylor Martinez is the quarterback, the dial will remain fixed on the read option, which produced fairly spectacular results before Martinez was injured in the eighth game. From there, it was another chorus of decline: After slashing Kansas State for 369 total yards and five touchdowns on national television in mid-October, Martinez failed to run for a score in any of the last nine games, and finally snapped a five-game streak without throwing for a score with a second quarter TD in the bowl game, Nebraska's only points in the loss.

When he's healthy, Martinez runs with 1,000 volts. But to have room to run – and especially to remain somewhere near full-speed – he has to be able to keep defenses more honest with his arm.

The Least You Should Know About...

              Nebraska
 In 2010
10-4 (6-3 Big 12); Lost Big 12 Championship Game; Lost Holiday Bowl; No. 20 in final AP poll
 Past Five Years
2006-10: 43-24 (25-18 Big 12); 0-3 in Big 12 Championship Game
 Five-Year Recruiting Rankings*
2007-11: 13 • 30 • 28 • 22 • 15
 Best Player

Defensive tackle Jared Crick was officially dubbed "the next Suh" by the great Kong himself after Nebraska's shutout win over Arizona in the '09 Holiday Bowl, and did about as well with that burden as you could expect as a junior: Big 12 coaches made him a first-team all-conference pick for the second year in a row, and Rivals made him a first-team All-American. He had more tackles for loss (14.5) than any interior lineman in the league. Still, opponents' rushing averages skyrocketed above their '09 mark by 60 yards per game.
 Best Year Ever
Even among five national championship teams, the 1995 'Huskers stand out as fire-breathing beasts among men: The defending champs rolled to their second straight 12-0 finish by an average margin of almost 39 points per game, including four top-10 wins by at least three touchdowns apiece. The 62-24 beatdown of Florida in the Fiesta Bowl remains the most lopsided 1 vs. 2 showdown since World War II.
 Best Case
The offense achieves some balance in service of an explosive running game. The defensive line lives up to its potential against the run and achieves regular pressure on opposing quarterbacks. 11-2, Big Ten champions; Rose Bowl; Top 10 in the final polls.
 Worst Case
Defenses gang up on a one-dimensional offense. Taylor Martinez benched. Revamped secondary falls victim to more big plays. 7-5, Texas Bowl; Unranked. Another postseason staff shake-up.
* Based on Rivals’ national rankings

Big Men On Campus. Somewhat lost amid the rise and fall of the offense and the overall success of the defense – the Blackshirts finished in the top dozen nationally in total and scoring D – was the decline of the run defense from an undeniable, top-10 strength with planet-devouring Ndamukong Suh in the middle of the line in 2009 to one of the 'Huskers' most glaring liabilities: They were 63rd nationally (7th in the Big 12) against the run in 2010, and a dismal 112th in tackles for loss. Six different offenses ground out at least 175 yards rushing, punctuated by Washington's 268-yard romp in the bowl game.

Given the attrition from a golden secondary, the strength of the team on paper is still the middle of the defense, where All-Big 12 picks Jared Crick and Lavonte David wait at defensive tackle and linebacker, respectively. Crick will be flanked again on the line by Cameron Meredith, a second-team all-conference pick at end, and Baker Steinkuhler, son of a former 'Husker All-American and the only five-star recruit out of Nebraska high schools in the last decade. By the reputation of the sum of its parts, this group seriously underachieved in Suh's absence. Adding Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan to the schedule – all top-20 rushing offenses last year, and better than any ground game Nebraska saw in the Big 12 – doesn't ease the curve.

Open Casting. There's been no finer secondary in America the last two years than Nebraska's: No. 1 nationally in pass efficiency defense in 2009, No. 3 in 2010. The headliner was cornerback Prince Amukamara, a unanimous All-American, Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year and soon-to-be first-round draft pick. But there were also departing seniors Eric Hagg, DeJon Gomes and Rickey Thenarse, and secondary coach Marvin Sanders, who resigned under mysterious circumstances last month.

Last year's DB rotation was deep – eight players played regularly at five positions, half of whom return. But none of the holdovers projects as an All-American, or a first-round draft pick, or an all-purpose utility man like Hagg, who was a first-team all-conference pick himself.

Overly Optimistic Spring Narrative. A healthy version of Taylor Martinez being directed by someone other than Shawn Watson is a "lightning in a bottle" prospect. Hell, a healthy Martinez is lightning regardless of who's pulling the strings: It was only after he lost a gear or two in a succession of knee and ankle injuries over the final month of the regular season that the life seemed to go out of the offense. With his speed and plenty of time to grow, Martinez is a promising slab of clay for Beck, whose stint with the similarly short, athletic Todd Reesing at Kansas suggests he's predisposed to just the kind of quick, safe, screen-heavy passing game that will both keep Martinez from having to run as often and loosen things up a bit for him when he does.

The Big Question. Does Martinez have the arm to lead a championship offense? At times last year, the answer seemed to be a resounding 'yes,' most obviously at Oklahoma State, where he passed 35 times for 323 yards, 5 touchdowns and zero interceptions against a defense laser-focused on limiting him as a runner. Before he was hurt, he passed less often but with equal effectiveness in impressive wins over Washington, Kansas State and Missouri – all three of which, not coincidentally, yielded well over 300 yards and three touchdowns to Nebraska on the ground.

The less danger the 'Huskers presented in the running game, the less threat Martinez proved to be as a passer. Nebraska came up shy of 200 yards rushing four times, and lost all four, games in which Martinez was something of a wreck. He was at his worst in a 4-for-13, 63-yard disaster against Texas on Oct. 16, the Longhorns' last conference win, but almost as bad down the stretch – 107 yards with no touchdowns and a pick at Texas A&M, 143 with no touchdowns and a pick in the Big 12 Championship loss to Oklahoma, where he was sacked seven times and turned it over twice more by holding on to the ball too long out of sheer confusion.

Chalk it up to the accumulated injuries, the inexperience of a redshirt freshman in his first season as a starter, the very public frustrations with coaches that nearly drove him off the team. Martinez was one-dimensional, and when he lost that dimension – by the limitations imposed by both his body and opposing defenses – the operation ground to a halt. It's still an ordinary supporting cast, down its leading rusher, receiver and three starting linemen. Beck can make things easier on his young quarterback. But the breakthrough back into the national elite only comes with a Taylor Martinez who makes defense half as afraid of his arm as they are of his legs.

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Matt Hinton is on Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.

Karen Carreno Bijou Phillips Marika Dominczyk Dita Von Teese Rachel Nichols

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