Thursday, January 27, 2011

Brady Hoke, Recruiter

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Since Brady Hoke was named head coach last Wednesday, a number of articles have been published lauding his ability as a recruiter. Since he was a position coach in his time at Michigan and recruiting data that far back is tough to come by, I'll look only at his time as a head coach, first at Ball State, then SDSU.

It should be noted that Rivals rankings get pretty fuzzy down in the depths. When they're all sleepers, performance matters more than rankings.

2003

Previous Year Record: 6-6 (4-4 MAC)
Signees: 19
Average Rating: 2.00 Stars
Rivals Ranking: 11th MAC (13 teams)

When Hoke arrived at Ball State, the Cardinals were coming off a .500 season under Bill Lynch - whom you may recognize as Indiana's recently-fired head man. He signed 19 prospects in February 2003, all of them 2-star prospects. That was only good for 11th in the 13-team conference, though some schools just had a greater number of equally regarded prospects (Eastern and Western Michigans with 21, Buffalo with 24, and Kent State with 30). Temple led the conference with a 4-star commit and four 3-star commits, but they were on their way out of the Big East. Bowling Green, off Urban Meyer's final year, signed a quartet of 3-star prospects.

It's unfair to hold Hoke's first class against him, especially since he had few scholarships to give out. Among schools that were not leaving a BCS conference or led by Urban Meyer, he was solidly middle-of-the-pack.

2004

Previous Year Record: 4-8 (3-5 MAC)
Signees: 26
Average Rating: 2.00 Stars
Rivals Ranking: t-5th MAC (13 teams)

Despite a big step back on the field, Hoke was able to move forward in recruiting. He signed a big class of 26 prospects, all of them 2-stars to Rivals - and in the first year of the "RR" rating, four 5.2 prospects, a 5.1, and a pair of 5.0s, with the rest receiving no mark. The Cardinals were in a 6-way tie for 5th in the conference, with a number of other schools that signed varying numbers of 2-star guys. Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, and Temple were ahead of the pack.

Though it was big jump in the rankings, this class was only a marginal improvement in reality. The Cardinals signed more prospects than the previous year, and Rivals changed their methodology slightly.

2005

Previous Year Record: 2-9 (2-6 MAC)
Signees: 21
Average Rating: 2.00 Stars
Rivals Ranking: t-8th MAC (13 teams)

As Ball State's record on the field continued to decline (despite threde Cardinals going in the following spring's NFL Draft), the recruiting maintained status quo. Though BSU's overall ranking was 8th in the MAC, it was a five-way tie for second-to-last. Once again, every prospect they signed was given two stars, with about half receiving the lowest RR rating possible: 4.9.

However, some of the members of this class went on to outperform their recruiting rankings. Offensive lineman Robert Brewster would go on to become a 3rd round pick of the Dallas Cowboys in 2009 (He is no longer listed on the Cowboys' roster). Wideout Dante Love led the nation in receiving yards in 2008 before suffering a spinal injury in the fourth game of the season.

2006

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Previous Year Record: 4-7 (4-4 MAC)
Signees: 23
Average Rating: 2.13 Stars
Rivals Ranking: 3rd MAC (13 teams)

His fourth recruiting class (third full class) at Ball State saw Brady Hoke land his first three 3-star prospects. Quarterback Nate Davis was the headliner. He would go on to lead the Cardinals to a near-comeback in Michigan Stadium as a true freshman and enter the NFL Draft after just three seasons in Muncie. He was a 5th-round pick of the San Francisco 49ers. Safety Terrell Johnson and defensive end Justin Woodard were the other 3-star prospects.

Yet again, Ball State's recruiting improved despite stagnation on the field.

2007

Previous Year Record: 5-7 (5-3 MAC)
Signees: 26
Average Rating: 2.04
Rivals Ranking: 4th MAC (12 teams)

This class was yet again close to the best in the conference. Two 3-star prospects signed with the Cardinals - running back Frank Edmonds and defensive tackle Renee Perry. This class also brought the first junior college transfer to Ball State in the Brady Hoke era, linebacker Cedric Rainey.

The Cardinals maintained status quo with this class - though the status quo had improved slightly since Hoke's first year in Muncie.

2008

Previous Year Record: 7-6 (5-2 MAC, co-Division Champs)
Signees: 21
Average Rating: 2.10
Rivals Ranking: 9th MAC (13 teams)

A huge step forward on the field for Ball State didn't make much of a difference in recruiting. The MAC signed more 3-star prospects than any of the past years, which is probably due to more 3-stars in Rivals's pool rather than an uptick in conference recruiting.

Ball State once again signed a pair of 3-stars, wideout Briggs Orsbon and quarterback Kelly Page. Neither has yet made an impact on the depth chart.

2009 - Ball State

Previous Year Record: 12-2 (8-0 MAC, lost Championship Game)
Signees: 24
Average Rating: 2.13
Rivals Ranking: t-9th MAC (3 teams)

I won't spend too much time on this class since Hoke left Ball State in December. There was plenty of time for replacement Stan Parrish to put his own mark on the class. The Cardinals signed three 3-star prospects: tight end Jacob Green, quarterback Aaron Mershman, and running back Eric Williams.

2009 - San Diego State

Previous Year Record: 2-10 (1-7 Mountain West)
Signees: 20
Average Rating: 2.10
Rivals Rankings: 8th MWC (9 teams)

Like his first class at Ball State, this can't be fully held against Hoke. Chuck Long cratered the Aztecs the previous year, though he did pull in the conference's 2nd-best 2008 class (behind only Utah).

Hoke's first hybrid class in San Diego contained four 3-star prospects: cornerback Nat Berhe, safety Eric Pinkins, and running backs Anthony Miller and Ronnie Hillman. Hillman was SDSU's leading rusher in 2010 after redshirting 2009. Berhe played each of the past two seasons, while the other two redshirted after getting playing time as true freshmen.

The Aztecs also brought in one junior college transfer, defensive back Larry Parker.

2010

Previous Year Record: 4-8 (2-6 Mountain West)
Signees: 27
Average Rating: 2.63
Rivals Ranking: 5th MWC (9 teams)

The Aztecs showed incremental improvement in Hoke's first year in San Diego, and he followed it up with his best recruiting class to date. Utah, BYU, TCU, and Colorado State finished with better recruiting classes (per Rivals) than SDSU, and other than Colorado State, all had exceptional seasons.

Hoke signed the first 4-star prospect of his head coaching career, landing JUCO defensive end Perry Jackson, along with 15(!) 3-star prospects. This class was JUCO-heavy with six transfers from schools within California. Maybe Hoke had a feeling it would be his last year in San Diego, and wanted to grab some guys who would be able to play immediately.

2011 - San Diego State

Previous Year Record: 9-4 (5-3 Mountain West)
Commits: 21
Average Rating: 2.17
Rivals Ranking: 5th MWC (9 teams)

Nobody has committed to SDSU since Hoke left, so all the commits should be accountable to him (or his assistants). The Aztecs have slipped slightly from last year's recruiting class, though instability has certainly not helped matters.

Michigan

Obviously we don't know how Brady Hoke is going to recruit at Michigan, either to close out the 2011 class or going forward. What we do know is that Michigan traditionally recruits as well as just about anybody in the conference, and Hoke has multiple Big Ten Championship rings and a National Championship ring that he earned here at Michigan. Those are bound to make a bigger difference recruiting here than at any other school.

Noureen DeWulf Nicollette Sheridan Amber Heard Veronica Kay Mýa

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