Previously: The Offense, The Defensive Backs
Dear Diary,
In 2006, David Harris never came off the field for a single defensive play. Then he (and Prescott Burgess) graduated, and the Ezeh/Mouton era was born.
The cheapest thrill in MGoBlogging from '07 to '10 was making an Obi Ezeh joke. Here was a guy with limited ability who was subject to terrible coaching and forced into the center of Michigan's defense ? wearing David Harris's number no less ? for four terrible years because until Kenny Demens there was no alternative. Since linebacker mistakes are harder to spot than, say, free safety mistakes, you could get a lot of internet cred by intelligently pointing out the flaws in Ezeh's game.
If you hang around enough program insiders, you already know that in all of the important things in life, Obi Ezeh is a spectacular success. On the overwhelming majority of the plays he was involved in, Obi did something other than fail spectacularly. And then there were those times on the field when he failed, spectacularly.
That it took until midway through his senior year to displace Ezeh says a lot about the depth of Michigan's linebacker recruiting, and probably more about the coaching. Four years ago, was this the future we expected?
Depth Chart:
| WLB | Yr. | MLB | Yr. | SLB | Yr. |
| Chris Graham | Sr. | Johnny Thompson | Jr.* | Shawn Crable | Sr.* |
| Jonas Mouton | Fr.* | Obi Ezeh | Fr.* | Marrell Evans | Fr. |
| Brandon Logan | Jr. | Austin Panter | Jr. | Brandon Herron | Fr. |
Incoming: (Marcus Wither-)SPOON!
Expected: AUUUUUUUUUUUUGGGHHHHH!!!!!!!!!
But that AUGGGHHHH was a long time coming. M had a string of bad linebacker recruiting years that ended up giving playing time to a Sarantos and the vastly overrated McClintock a few years earlier before the enterprise was saved by Burgess 
The story of 2007 recruiting, other than "PLZ moar DBs!" was "PLZ moar LBs!" Then the LB haul turned out to be a JUCO junior and two fliers, and two of the freshmen transferred, and crippling fear set in. Little bits of happy flakes like "maybe Chris Graham will have a Bennie Joppru renaissance" and "Obi Ezeh practice hype!" and "Jonas Mouton's recruiting pedigree as a safety" were used to provide the necessary optimism to balance the previews that start with a tiny linebacker with Tyrannosaurus arms, yappy trash-talking spear, and blitz-only knife, and end with one guy down the depth chart with any hope of being good.
Tyranno-arms was Chris Graham, who was terrible as a sophomore, didn't play behind Burgess, and came into his senior year expected to raise even more internet ire. The expectation here was for Mouton's loads of talent to push Graham out of the way.
At MLB, Thompson and Ezeh were in a battle. What little had been seen of Thompson led Brian to conclude he was a guy born a generation too late, 
Nobody's seen redshirt freshman Ezeh in the flesh yet, but the indicators on him are good. For one, he is David Harris: a nothing running back recruit out of Grand Rapids who Michigan unearthed and brought in as a linebacker. He even took the newly hallowed #45 once Harris graduated. In the fall he was moved to middle linebacker to compete with Thompson and Panter so he wouldn't spend his year idling behind Crable. Whenever people try to get you on the field, that's a good sign.
We now know that whenever people try to get you on the field, that could be a good sign for you, or a bad sign for the entire unit.
Crable? Ah, Crable. Expert attacker, not made for regular linebacking duties. The SAM position that kind of became Spur and is now again SAM was exactly what Crable was good at. He essentially made Michigan's defense a 5-2, with Crable serving as a sharp knife to terrify bludgeoning offensive linemen and wreak backfield havoc. When he's not doing this, Michigan would go to the nickel, with Brandon Harrison in for Crable. Brian in 
As a 6'6" linebacker with chicken legs and a high center of gravity, he's not the sort to defeat a block and close out a hole. He doesn't make tackles three yards downfield. It's either in the backfield or after long pursuit.
As for depth and future: negligible or less after Mouton and Ezeh. The team was sucking up the departure of Mixon and Patilla, and Brandon Graham's move to DE, leaving just 9 scholarship players, of whom Mouton was the only consensus 4-star or higher. Logan was already a clear Anton Campbell Memorial Special Teamer. Pessimistic practice reports ruled out any immediate usefulness from Panter. Evans was a 2-star reportedly offered on advice that he had a better work ethic than Brandon Minor, according to Brandon Minor. Herron was an athletic project recruit who looked like a receiver. On July 31, 2007, until help arrived from the 2008 class, the future was Ezeh, Mouton, and bleakness:
Mixon transferred, Patilla is likely gone, and Graham is a defensive end. Mouton (who moved down from safety) and Ezeh are both drawing very positive reviews and are odds-on favorites to start next year, but past that we have only the two freshmen, one of whom was a two-star and the other a three-star regarded as a combine freak who needs a lot of work. Depth is also going to be an issue at linebacker going forward; we need at least three in this class.
As for those 2008 recruits, SPOON! was Rival's 160th overall at the time, and the board was full of linebacker prospects. Taylor Hill, a 3.5-star-ish guy was apparently off to Florida (the RR hire turned him back), but M was in good position for 4-star J.B. Fitzgerald, an
All told, expectations were for a dark period that hopefully saw Mouton emerge as a killer to cover up deficiencies in the Ezeh/Thompson platoon, while the coaches schemed around the 3rd LB spot with two-LB sets (nickel/5-2) or sets that basically act like two-LB (3-3-5, 4-3 under) until the fruits of the 2008 haul ripened. The 2008 preview gave a kind 2 out of 5 rating because if Ezeh got better (rather than worse) each year, he'd be Schilling minus the recruiting hype. At that point Mouton was beaten for the starting gig by the workmanlike (pre-transfer) Marrell Evans, and Panter was your 2008 starting SLB. By Penn State '08 it was Thompson at SAM, Mouton terrible in coverage but awesome at blitzing, and Ezeh a convenient focal point for power running teams, which the Big Ten has those, and we talking about how we totally called it.
Ultimately this meant 'eh' to mediocre linebacker play for 2007-09, and then something approximating good in 2010 when Mouton and Ezeh are 5th year seniors with loads of experience, and the 2008 guys were upperclassmen.
How Did that Turn Out?
This is a picture taken from Brian's picture pages of Mouton losing contain again. RB#32 will now cut behind LT#77 and probably have enough time to cue a celebratory animation as he waltzes toward the end-zone as you throw your controller and curse the EAsshole who programmed suction blocking.
Then you realize this is real life and you go looking for a coach to throttle.
The depth chart at the beginning of 2007 fall practice tells a story, but the rest of the tale of linebacker in the 2007-10 is the clearest case in M history since DeBordian offensive playcalling in which the coaches failed their players.
Whereas the defensive backfield suffered from a lack of guys, the linebacker corps had a some guys with wildly varying abilities The truth of that statement can be found in the era's picture pages that weren't about bad DB play, bad backup DL play, or some bit of insight into the Offensive Genius of Mr. Rodriguez, from lining up Demens incorrectly to the consistent fundamental mistakes made by experienced 5th year seniors. It can be confirmed by the incredibly short careers of various linebacker coaches in this time:
2007: Steve Szabo ? Former LB's coach for Jacksonville Jaguars ('94-'02) and DC for B.C. and Colorado State before that. Michigan's LB coach from 2006-'07, was let go with rest of Carr's staff when RR took over, and joined the Carr's-Michigan-in-Exile project of Ron English down the road in Ypsilanti.
2008-'09: Jay Hopson ? A favorite MGoWhipping Boy, this Mississippi import couldn't a.) coach linebackers, or b.) recruit Mississippi. He was the fall-guy for the 2009 defense. Brian on Hopson postmortem:
Now that he's actually gone, it's no sugarcoat time: Hopson failed at all aspects of his job at Michigan. At least Tony Gibson can point to the walk-ons and whatnot when attempting to explain what went wrong with his section of the defense; Hopson had two redshirt juniors with three years of starting experience between them. They went backwards, and the big-time recruit backing them up also proved unready.
Meanwhile, a?possibly the?primary reason Michigan lacks depth on the defensive line and might have to turn down a couple of recruits who want to come was Hopson getting "commitments" from two defensive tackles who eventually went to Arkansas and Texas Tech on signing day.
- If the link to that Christmastime '09 post is purple on your browser, it's because I've linked it several times before thanks to this famous bit of prophesy fulfilled:
This makes Rodriguez 0/2 on his new hires since coming to Michigan, with Greg Robinson currently sporting an incomplete. If Rodriguez doesn't make it at Michigan the guys he picked to run his defense will be a primary factor.
2010: GERG ? You see a man with fantastically groomed white locks who takes the opportunity afforded by his first linebacker ward performing a linebacker play correctly to rub said linebacker's face with a beaver beanie baby. Throttle this man? Y/N
- That's not to say they were working with a roster full of Ray Lewis and Jarret Johnsons (like some people). The transfer bug continued, as Evans and three of the '08 commits (Hill, SPOON!, and former safety Brandon Smith) followed Mixon and Patilla out the door. The recruiting sto
ry under Carr was, if you can believe it, even more desperate than the defensive backs, evidence: Panter. But where you can't get away from playing 4 DBs on most downs, you can get away with 2 every-down linebacker-y linebackers if you scheme for it, and that's what Michigan essentially did.- The result: zero depth behind the two summon creatures played above. At various points along the way, tiny walk-on Kevin Leach became a nominal starter, and not because of injuries to guys ahead of him. Suboptimal options J.B. Fitzgerald, Craig Roh, Brandon Herron, Mark Moundros and Brandon Smith were all forced into the lineup in hopes of plugging some of those holes between Adam Patterson and wherever Adam Patterson's shoes were landing. If the Opong-Owusu family had produced any more sons, they probably would have played as well.
- The real story of 2007 to 2010 though was Mouton and Ezeh. Mouton came to be known in my (fantasy nerdy) head as the Goblin Sapper, equally liable to cause massive AOE damage to enemies and his own party. Since the NFL apparently thinks they can make a linebacker out of him, and he was actually getting really good coverage drops whenever he knew to do so, I tend to blame the coaches more than Mouton for his 'define erratic' play. We can only wonder if he would have been our best WLB prospect since Dhani. Ezeh? At this point let's just link one more time to the Iowa 2010 UFR and wish him luck in everything he does.
That's 2/3 of the tale. The third LB position, strongside, turned out fine. Crable was Crablicious in limited duty for English's nickel-happy '07, and in '08 John Thompson got to do his neaderthalish thing when the occasion called for it (which was basically just Wisconsin and MSU). In 2009 the SAM spot became Spur, a straightforward hybrid position that basically combines Brandon Harrison and Shawn Crable into a player who stays on the field for every down. In '09 it turned out to be Stevie Brown's lifetime calling. In 2010 it was the home of a rotating cast of freshmen: two redshirted Gordons and Carvin Johnson, who were not at all disappointing.
5 Point Scale of Expectation vs. Outcome: 3. We knew things were gonna be Mouton, Ezeh and pray for rain, and only hoped that experience, recruiting, plus a breakout or two from among the 2- and 3-stars, would be able to fix that. Ezeh got a little bit worse every year. Mouton had a major regression as a junior from a promising but mistake-y sophomore year, before getting a bit better as a senior. The recruits came but didn't develop. What really nailed this unit was the coaching, both the effects of changing schemes every year, and the overall poor quality of the Hopson/GERG coaching experience. Heading into 2011, the outlook isn't all that different, depending on your excitement level over Kenny Demens in a sensical defense (Brian: high, Misopogon: medium) and trust that one of the WLB guys will be serviceable (Brian: low, Misopogon: medium). For the future, the "I coached Ray Lewis" pitch seems to be working like free ice cream as Mattison has grabbed first dibs on a loaded regional LB class, and Mark Smith, who has followed Hoke around since '03, would really have to work to match the record incompetence of his last two predecessors.
Next week is the d-line and I promise it won't be this depressing again. Look: Biakabutuka going for 313.
Diaries after the jump.
OSU, Other Scandals: Go!
Thank you EGD. Not nearly enough of you people have yet to read his comparison of the Ohio State scandal to those at Florida State, USC, M Hoops, Bama Recruiting, and Miami (YTM), so I'm borrowing his chart:
| School | Year of Sanctions | Violation(s) | Bowl Ban | Scholarship Reductions | Probation | Forfeited Wins/Titles |
| Florida State | 1993 | Players got $$ and free stuff | No | None | 1 year | No |
| The U | 1995 | School officials got athletes grants illegally | 1 year | 31 (over 3 years) | 3 years | No |
| Alabama | 2002 | Boosters paid HS coaches for recruits | 2 years | 21 (over 3 years) | 5 years | Yes |
| Michigan (B-ball) | 2003 | Multiple players got $$ from one booster | 1 year | 4 (over 4 years) | 2 years | Yes |
| U.S.C. | 2011 | Players in multiple sports got agent | 2 years | 30 (over 3 years) | 4 years | Yes |
For each he tells you what happened, the sanctions imposed, the relevance to tatgate, the key differences, and what it means for OSU. Read this Diary of the Week, and speak intelligently when people ask the summer's most burning question.
Ranking Things
Returning starters is one of those nebulous metrics that are easy to track but not qualify. JohnnyV123 decided to try that and see if any patterns emerge. I'll let him explain the methodology:
Using Phil Steele's lists of RS I looked at the record for every team in a BCS conference plus Notre Dame in 2008-09, then listed how many starters they would be returning for the 2009-10 season, then added their record for the 2009-10 season, and noted the change in the amount of wins between the two seasons. I repeated that for the 2009-10 season going into the 2010-11 season.
If you play one more game than the previous year and win it, you get half a win, lose and it's minus half. Most relevant for M:
As the number of RS increased more teams did improve but I was surprised to see that not until a team returned 17 starters was it significantly more likely to. In the 15 or 16 RS number it still seemed close to a 50/50 to expect more or less wins.
Michigan returns 20, including the QB (he tracked that too).
Meanwhile our friend turn ferguson (heh heh, it's a funny name), has been goofing around trying to come up with an aggregate recruiting ranking. Part I was nice but Part II is the better and covers the same bases. I'm not in love with his methodology. His is overall ranking, but for those that don't rank there's a lot of normalization. We tried to do something like this last year as part of a greater recruiting database of Michigan offers (one of many dead projects). I'd rather see it converted to a five-point scale (star rating). As a check, look at each player's offers and assign a star value. If it's Bama, USC, M, OSU, every likely school in the region, and several intergalactic space organizations, that's 5 stars, and so on.
Still, let's not underrate. It's a very useful project, and one I hope to see refined and updated throughout the year. Bravo?ahem?Mr. Ferguson.
Fisk This Diary
I am pulling this left. You can thank me later.
I am thinking about starting a new feature called "Fisk this Diary." When somebody writes a Diary that is just plain wrong without being any of the things that get a Diary dumped to the board or worse, I'll call in some ringers and with your help do a fisk job. Reason is totally not to diss the guy who wrote it, but because refuting smart disagreement for me is one of the best ways to learn. This week:
FG kicker? We don't need no stinking FG kicker, by Nonnair
The diary is in two parts. The first part is where he says "Scoring DOES SO matter" with reasoning that basically amounts to "duh!" It is poorly reasoned and well refuted by Brian in Friday's "Ode de la Shotgun," so let's just ignore Part I and focus on the much more interesting title premise.
What Nonnair did here was to look at the situations last year when Michigan probably would have attempted a field goal if they had half-way competent kicker. His point -- which I can't help but point out completely contradicts his Part 1 premise about the 2010 offense not being able to move the ball when it matters -- is that the 2010 offense was so damn good that going for it on 4th down in these 7 situations (all in the 1st half) ended up giving Michigan more points than if they had a poor man's Jason Hanson kicking 7 field goals.
Yeah, first problem right there: 7 trials is not enough sample size to come anywhere close to a conclusion. However it's winking suggestively here that with an awesome offense, the crappy field goal kicking could be a net bonus by forcing Rodriguez out of his shell. Did it work? In those 7 trials, Michigan got the 1st down 5 times. Two of those successes ended in made field goals, and three in touchdowns. The maximum score attainable with 7 field goal attempts is 21 points. Michigan netted 27 points from the drives when they went for it. Better not to have a kicker than a great kicker. Case closed?
All that red in the Michigan zone is value earned by the offense that was lost by the kicker on obvious kicking opportunities. So on the field goals Michigan tried last year, we threw away 16 points, versus the six this study shows M getting back by being forced to do a statistically correct thing that teams don't usually do because their fans don't trust statistics.
If I can make a suggestion, just combine 3rd and 4th down stats for certain yardages to get an approximation of 4th down conversion success rate. Presumably the offense isn't using a 4-down strategy, and the defense is setting up on both downs with the same goal: stop the 1st down. If you wanna get specific, adjust for 3rd and 4th down defensive success rates for each team faced in those situations.
In other diaries that could use a fair amount of fisk, glewe lists some tangible intangibles for having a coach who "gets it," by which I think he just means a coach whose M.O. is all about the tradition and the brand. Marketing the brand is unquestionably something Hoke has done better than Rodriguez. But the diary seems to presume too much in suggesting the kids recruited by a "Tradition" PR campaign are more likely to stick around. Winning and continuity and a million other things prevent attrition. What happens when Mattison's linebackers don't all become Ray Lewis?
Etc.
A little primer from M-Dog on what to hate about Big Ten schools. Though Nebraska = Slightly Dumber Wisconsin? No way, man. They're a trumped up Iowa. Wisconsin has sailing, and MUCH better bars.
After you've read M-Dog's thing and nodded at the part where Michigan fans are called arrogant (did you even have to look?), check out visiting Spartan intelligentsia WatersDemos's Machiavellian reasoning for why Pryor-type (unjustifiable) vanity is different than (justifiable) hubris. As with Machiavelli, I personally find the concept of a difference between amour propre and amour de soi rather pedantic. It's all arrogance to me.
Brooks took a week off from his Lacrosse Recruiting Analysis to go off on a tangent about how important Canada will be to Michigan's varsity future. It seems the country that invented the sport is prime recruiting ground for M, since most of their population lives as close to Detroit as New York. Their indoor game basically makes them the Floridian speed capital of the sport:
It almost looks like two completely different games. While outdoor lacrosse looks like basketball on a soccer field, box lacrosse is hockey played with the ball in the air rather than a puck on the ground (literally. Check out the goalie pads and how they hold their sticks. Also, feel free to check out any of the inordinate number of fight highlights they offer). You play only play 5v5 in box and on field the size of a hockey rink.
And finally, many simchah's and a big Mazel Tov to the new Mr. and Mrs. GoBlog, thanks to MGoResident Artist Six Zero:
To all of you young gentlemen thinking of tying the knot, your blog will be the ONLY time it is ever referred to with your name before the possessive. Oh, and No Ring, No Bring. Serious.
Vitamin C Scarlett Johansson Christina Ricci Missi Pyle Jessica Alba
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